Crystal ball gazing – future publication impact

Photo by Valerie Everett, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Metrics of publication success are now a common feature of academic life. We are all familiar with concepts such as the number of publications per year, the level of citation (peer referencing) of published works, and the impact factor of journals. The first two metrics are neatly captured within a single metric, the h index. Under the metric originally developed by Jorge Hirsch, a scientist has an h-index of n if he or she has published n articles receiving at least n citations each. Einstein and Darwin have impressive h-indices of 96 and 63, respectively.

A recent study by Daniel Acuna and colleagues has developed a model predicting future h-index success (5 – 10 years into the future) based on a combination of current factors: number of articles published to date, career length, number of distinct journals published in, and the proportion of publications in top journals (impact factor >10).

You can have a go a predicting your future h-index here.

Article: Acuna DE, Allesina S, Kording KP (2012) Nature 489, 201–202. doi:10.1038/489201a


About Prof Andy Lowe

Prof Andy Lowe is a British-Australian scientist and expert on plants and trees, particularly the monitoring, management and utilisation of genetic, biological and ecosystem resources. He has discovered new species, lost forests, championed to eliminate illegally logged timber in global supply chains, served the UN’s Office of Drugs and Crime and has been responsible for securing multi-million dollar research funding. He is an experienced and respected executive leader, as well as mid-career mentor. Andy is the inaugural Director of Food Innovation at the University of Adelaide serving as the external face for all significant food industry and government sectors across South Australia, and the world.
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One Response to Crystal ball gazing – future publication impact

  1. Pingback: Pollinate the lay press and double your citations | Biodiversity Revolution

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